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In people with ultra high risk symptoms, risk of transition to psychotic disorders is highest in the first 2 years

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Question: What are the baseline clinical predictors, and long-term transition rates to a psychotic disorder in an ultra-high risk population?

Population: A total of 416 people (aged 15–30 years) considered at ultra-high risk (UHR) of developing a psychotic disorder, being treated at the Personal Assessment and Crisis Evaluation Clinic (PACE). Exclusions: people with a current or past psychotic disorder, known organic cause, and use of neuroleptics. Participants were tracked using the National Death Index, mental health record system, electoral roll, telephone directory, previous contacts and internet searching.

Setting: PACE Clinic, Melbourne, Australia; recruitment 1993–2006.

Prognostic factors: UHR criteria, defined as attenuated positive psychotic symptoms (APPS), brief limited intermittent psychotic symptoms (BLIPS), and trait and state risk factors (Trait). APPS was one or more of the following symptoms within the past year, present for between 1 week and 5 years and occurring at least several times a week: ideas of reference, perceptual disturbance, odd thinking and speech, odd behaviour and appearance, odd beliefs or magical thinking. BLIPS was one or more of the following symptoms within the past year, present for …

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  • Sources of funding National Health and Medical Research Council; Colonial Foundation Grant.


  • Competing interests None.